They stand one and two in the National Football Conference race and the winner of Sunday night's showdown between the 8-2 Green Bay Packers and the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium will gladly slip into the driver's seat for the top NFC playoff seed with only five weeks left in the regular season.
To think a team with a rookie Head Coach and a squad that won all of four games just a year ago are in this position is remarkable, but here they are.
They have achieved that status in different ways. Kyle Shanahan's 49ers reeled off eight straight wins before stumbling. There have been whispers the wins came relatively easily against teams from the bungling AFC North, including the still winless Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, along with likes of the 1-9 Washington Redskins where San Francisco managed only rain soaked 9-0 victory a month ago. They have two wins against a three win Arizona team and both games were close. Matter of fact, the Niners have played only two games against teams that currently have a winning record, a 20-7 victory over the disappointing 6-4 Los Angeles Rams, the defending conference champs and their only loss of the year, two weeks ago in overtime to their nearest challenger, the 8-2 Seattle Seahawks.
Matt LaFleur's Packers on the other hand, have managed to five, one score victories but a league leading five wins have come against teams above .500, including two division leaders in Dallas and Kansas City. Both of those victrories were on the road. The slip ups were a shootout loss at home to Philadelphia and the moribund performance against the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Packers rebounded from that one to beat Carolina before their bye week and now well rested, they'll try to prove they are the more battle tested team.
They certainly are the healthier squad. Coming off the bye, every rostered player has practiced this week while San Francisco is hoping to have a few front liners close to 100%. That list includes their top rusher in Matt Breida, their top receiver in George Kittle and best edge rusher in Dee Ford. Those three along with tackle Joe Staley missed at least some practice time this week.
So how will this one play out? LaFleur and Shanahan are both cut from the same philosphical cloth on offense, there won't be any secrets.
When the Packers have the ball.
The Niners are statistically very good on defense, a unit coordinated by LaFleur's best friend in coaching, Robert Saleh. From the Seattle, cover 3 tree, Saleh has pass rushing talent in waves and a disciplined secondary that covers the back thirds very well. The key for Green Bay will be to get the running backs involved in both the run and pass. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams can get positive yards against a front that allows 4.8 per carry on the season. They also can get into routes against win-able linebacking matchups. Aaron Rodgers will have to get the ball out quickly from the pocket, or find escape lanes against the wide 9, edge collapsing rush. San Francisco has allowed only four completions all season on balls that traveled more than 20 yards downfield so the Packers had better bring nickels and dimes with them to Levi's Stadium. That should allow tight ends to get busy if the perimeter receivers can stretch the deep zone. After a stingy stretch in mid-season where the Niners gave up 10 points total in three victories, the last three opponents have all topped 25 against them. The LaFleur offense has gone above 23 points in 7 of their 10 games.
When the 49ers have the ball.
It may be like looking into the mirror for the Green Bay defense, Shanahan's system is not all that different from what the Packers see every day at practice. San Francisco is all about run first, they have called runs on 55% percent of their offensive snaps, rare in today's pass happy league. Breida, Tevin Coleman and Rasheem Mostert are always forward falling and capable of leaking out. All three have 40 plus yard touchdown runs and Breida has taken one 83 yards for a score this year. With that kind of ground game, Jimmy Garappolo can run a play action game and be judicious with downfield shots. Utilizing a lot of motion and misdirection, he can catch defenses chasing ghosts. LaFleur said his unit must play with eye discipline or communication breakdowns can lead to explosive plays which has been a problem this year. Garoppolo's favorite target is Kittle who has missed the last two games but still leads the team with 46 receptions. Both Oakland and Carolina were able to exploit Green Bay's D with that position. Sound run defense is needed to allow the Smiths, Za'Darius and Preston to pressure Garoppolo and if they can, turnovers can be created, he's thrown 10 picks, two last week.
The bottom line.
The Packers will be much more focused on this journey to the West Coast than they were in Southern California. The team ditched the Friday departure for a late Saturday afternoon arrival. They understand this is a pivotal business trip and one that can result in fantastic rewards come playoff time. It should be a spirited Sunday evening but at home, I'm giving the 49ers the edge. I'll take San Francisco 27-24.
