The dynamic has changed slightly before the Green Bay Packers meet the Minnesota Vikings Monday night at US Bank Stadium.
Thanks to the San Francisco 49ers beating the Los Angeles Rams 34-31 Saturday night, the Vikings have moved into the NFC playoff field. All that's left to be determined in the NFC is the seeding for the top 3 and the last 2 positions. The Dallas-Philadelphia survivor will claim the East Division title and lock down the 4th seed.
What's still at stake is the North title and a guaranteed home game but the Packers have the upper hand here. By virtue of their 21-16 win over Minnesota back in September and a perfect 4-0 record in division games, Green Bay can lose Monday but still secure the North championship with a victory in Detroit next week.
A Packer victory could also keep them poised to hang on to the number 2 seed and more importantly, earn a weekend off while the Wild Card round teams go at it. Finishing 13-3 would seal no worse than the 2 but climbing to the number one seed got more difficult because of the 49ers victory at home. If Seattle beats Arizona Sunday, number one will be unattainable because the Seahawks and 49ers finish against each other and the winner of that game will have home field advantage throughout, regardless of how the New Orleans Saints finish. Three conference losses spoiled the Saints' chances.
So if it all plays out with favorites prevailing the rest of the way, it looks very much like Monday night's game will only be a prelude to the Packers, as the number 3 seed hosting, guess who?, the Vikings at Lambeau Field on Wild Card weekend.
So let's match up the final Monday night game of the season.
When the Packers have the ball:
The Green Bay offense only seems to move the ball consistently when Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are featured. Against a Mike Zimmer defense, one, and more likely two others will have to come through with production. Who will those two be? Jake Kumerow has been promised more snaps by Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Allen Lazard has certainly shown flashes like he did in New York. Maybe Jimmy Graham will be able to find holes in the Minnesota zones. Fact is, someone must step up and make the Vikings pay for focusing on Jones and Adams. The offensive line is playing with a lot of confidence after neutralizing the Chicago pass rush last week. The Vikings front seven is very capable of providing pressure with Danielle Hunter leading the way. Eric Kendricks and safety Harrison Smith are effective blitzers who will have to be picked up by running backs or tight ends staying in to protect. Minnesota will force Rodgers to make decisions quickly and he'll have to be on top of his recognition game to keep drives moving forward. The Packers jumped on the Vikings early at Lambeau and another quick start could lower the decibel level at US Bank.
When the Vikings have the ball:
Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook was ruled out Saturday because of a shoulder injury. Backup Alexander Mattison practiced sparingly all week with a sore ankle so the rushing game burden may fall on Mike Boone. A break for the Packers but not a huge break because the Vikings have proved to be an effective running team (4th in the NFL) all season. One reason I was hoping for the Rams to win in San Francisco was that it would apply more pressure on Kirk Cousins to step up in a win to get in game. Cousins has put up impressive numbers most of the season but against quality teams and when the stage lights are hot, that hasn't been the case. He's 0-8 all time on Monday night. 2-10 against teams with winning records since joining the Vikings on an 84 million dollar, fully guaranteed contract. It's not like he doesn't have weapons. Stefon Diggs is looking to find the end zone for the 7th straight game against the Packers. He's the field stretcher, Adam Thielen, who missed nearly two months with a hamstring pull is back healthy and he produces consistently and tight end Kyle Rudolph always creates matchup problems. Let's defer to veteran defensive back Tramon Williams to break down the Vikings offense that will be without Dalvin Cook and be led by a very expensive but sparsely decorated quarterback:
(Audio: Tramon Williams)
I'll be very surprised if Boone inflicts damage on the ground and Cousins has a career night.
Bottom line.
The Packers are tired of hearing how they are barely beating teams even though they have continually beaten teams to reach 11-3 with two weeks to play. Granted they'll face a Vikings team without their best offensive player, just like the trip to Kansas City for a much anticipated game that was without Patrick Mahomes. The Packers won that game in a hostile environment. This is only the second game played indoors this year but the Packers won the first one, against at the time, a formidable Dallas team, again on the road. A complete effort to secure the NFC North championship is very possible against a rival that backed into the playoffs before kickoff, but I have a feeling the SKOAL energy will be a bit too much and the North title will have to wait one more week.
I like the Vikes in a good one, 23-20.
