A funny thing happened the last time the Chicago Bears had a chance to clinch a division championship by hosting the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field.
It was the regular season finale in 2013. The Bears were 8-7, the Packers 7-7-1. It came down to a miraculous 4th down play when Aaron Rodgers escaped his future teammate Julius Peppers and found Randall Cobb behind the defense for the game winning touchdown in the final minute. That allowed Green Bay to steal away the NFC North crown. It was also the 4th straight time the Packers defeated the Bears in Chicago.
That game sent the Bears into a prolonged hibernation. They never climbed out of the Black and Blue basement for four years under two head coaches. Marc Trestman and John Fox could not pull the proud franchise up.
So here we are in 2018 and the 5-7-1 Packers meet the 9-4 Bears who can secure a division crown with a win again. The rise from worst to first has occurred with a rookie Head Coach in Matt Nagy and a defense that has awoken the echos of past Monsters of the Midway.
Green Bay's remarkable run of success on the Windy City's lakefront has reached eight consecutive games. They have been on the winning side 21 of the last 25 times the NFL's oldest rivals have met in the broad shouldered city.
Can they make it nine in a row and 22 of 26? It's possible but I believe this year's Bears team is sick and tired of watching the Pack smile on the way out of their house.
Let's match 'em up.
When the Bears have the ball.
Mitch Trubisky is a nice, young quarterback and Nagy, an offensive minded boss will work diligently to improve his game. But growing pains are still evident. He runs way too often and the punishment will catch up to him. Trubisky is still turnover prone with 12 interceptions and that's with missing a couple of games. Jordan Howard is an above average back but not a dominant runner. The wide receivers are coverable. If there's one player that can torment the Green Bay defense, it's Tarik Cohen. He averages just over six carries per game but Cohen is Nagy's favorite matchup weapon. He lines up out wide, in the slot and Trubisky has found him down field for a team leading 63 receptions. Chicago has gone over 30 points four times this year, but that's because the defense chips in with a score or two of their own.
When the Packers have the ball.
Here's where things get dicey. Chicago's defense has stayed remarkably healthy and consistently productive. The stats are impressive. Third in yards allowed, third best on third down and points allowed per game. They are second in rushing yards allowed per game and in average yards per play. Chicago is the NFL's best in first downs allowed and with takeaways, 34 total including a league best 25 interceptions. They have six defensive touchdowns. Nagy's most important off-season move heading into his rookie year was retaining defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. There's talent at every level beginning with Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman up front, former Raider Khalil Mack, Leonard Floyd and Danny Trevethan at linebacker and defensive backs Kyle Fuller, sharing the league lead with seven picks and safety Eddie Jackson who has two interception returns and a fumble return for scores. Chicago rarely blitzes because the front four gets enough pressure on its own.
The Packers will have backups on the right side of the offensive line and Chicago will attack Jason Spriggs and Justin McCray. Expect cloud coverage or outright double teams with Davante Adams.
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams will be asked to help in protection and be ready to run screens or draws to take some of the pressure off.
This is the home finale for the Bears, they finish at San Francisco and Minnesota. They will be fired up to send their fans home happy for the holidays but the Christmas spirit will go on hold. I think Chicago will be in a punishing state of mind, taking out years of frustration on their rivals. It will result in not only a playoff knockout punch to the Packers but a long awaited division title for the home side.
I'll take the Bears, 23-14.
