As preposterous as it sounds, the Green Bay Packers could return from their final road trip of the 2019 season as the NFC's number one playoff seed.
A victory by the 12-3 Packers over the injury ravaged 3-11-1 Lions at Ford Field Sunday will guarantee Green Bay no worse than the number two seed, complete with a first round bye. A Packer win coupled with Seattle beating San Francisco for the NFC West Division title would vault Green Bay to the top spot, meaning the road to Super Bowl LIV in Miami would have to travel through Lambeau Field.
Pretty remarkable for a team thought to be rebuilding with a first year Head Coach back in September.
Yet Matt LaFleur's Packers have found ways to win twelve times over this year including the dominating defensive performance in last Monday night's 23-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings at US Bank Stadium that delivered Green Bay's first NFC North championship since 2016.
LaFleur has stressed to his team through Christmas week that the playoffs actually begin in week 17. Would you rather win this weekend to jump into the second round of the playoffs or have to win another game next week to reach the divisional round? Didn't think so.
After a rowdy party in the Twin Cities, LaFleur wants razor focus from his team against a divisional rival that would love nothing more than to cool the Packer heels by ending a miserable eight game losing streak.
Here's how the finale matches up.
When the Packers have the ball.
The only concerning injury on either side of the ball is a sore shoulder for Jamaal Williams. The complimentary running back has been instrumental in keeping Aaron Jones fresh throughout the year. After he went down against Minnesota, Jones became the focal point of the offense and responded with a season high 154 yards rushing and two touchdowns, giving him a league leading 19 on the season and leaving him one shy of the franchise record set by Ahman Green. Jones might have to be the workhorse again. Detroit's run defense is playing spirited but shorthanded, their top three linebackers are among 16 players on injured reserve. That list also includes former Packer Mike Daniels, a stout defender of the run on the interior. The Lions don't generate much pressure on opposing quarterbacks and their secondary, even with Pro Bowl corner Darius Slay, has paid the price. Detroit ranks 26th in points allowed per game, 29th in yards per game and they are dead last in pass defense, giving up nearly 290 yards a game through the air. This might be the week where Jones pulls an extra defender into the box and Aaron Rodgers and the receivers feast on winnable matchups. The Lions turned Green Bay over at Lambeau three times and led the entire game until Mason Crosby hit the walk off field goal in the 23-22 victory. The Packers learned hard lessons last Monday night regarding turnovers (another trio), so better ball security is a must.
When the Lions have the ball.
No Matthew Stafford, no Marvin Jones, no T.J. Hockenson for Detroit, all on IR. The Lions are leaning on undrafted rookie David Blough to quarterback them to the finish line. The former Purdue Boilermaker is Big 10 tough, but just not very talented. The Lions have welcomed Kerryon Johnson back from the injured reserve list and he got spot duty in last week's game at Denver but he's nowhere near early season form. If the Packers control the trenches the way they have the past couple of games, Blough has only one dangerous weapon to lean on. Kenny Golloday has put up solid numbers, 62 receptions, over 1100 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year but the secondary should be up the task of taking him away. Forcing Blough to move the chains with third down and medium or long distances to go should give the energized pass rush time to get home. Unless given short fields from takeaways by the defense or big returns from Jamal Agnew who was scored on both a kickoff and punt return this year, it's hard for me to imagine Detroit being able to drive consistently. Even with Stafford playing in October, the Packer defense locked down in the red zone, forcing Detroit to settle for five field goals in that game.
Bottom line.
I can't imagine the Packers letting down even after the emotional high at Minnesota. The Lions will be feisty but Green Bay should prevail. I like the Pack 27-14.
So that at least would give the Packers the number 2 seed and a first round bye. Since the playoff resurgence of the franchise began in the 1993 season (19 playoff appearances), they have been seeded first on two occasions. In 1996, Mike Holmgren's dominant team went all the way to the title. In 2011, Mike McCarthy's defending Super Bowl champs went 15-1 but laid an egg at Lambeau against the New York Giants 37-20. The Packers have been the number 2 seed three times. In 1997, they failed to repeat as Denver stunned the Pack in Super Bowl XXXII. In 2007, Brett Favre's overtime interception at bone chilling Lambeau allowed the Giants to escape 23-20 in overtime. Most recently, in 2014, the Packers reached the NFC title game only to collapse late against Seattle, losing 28-22 again in OT.
The bye is no guarantee, Lambeau is not the automatic it was until Mike Sherman's team was shocked at home by Michael Vick and Atlanta in 2003. Green Bay is 12-5 in home playoff games since 1993. But after a two year absence from post-season play, January football in Titletown will be a treat.
