Packers Patriots Preview

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It's a shame the Packers play in the NFC North while the Patriots reside in the AFC East.

Can you imagine two Rodgers vs Brady games a year?   As it is, we'll likely have to settle for two in a career.

Green Bay travels to Gillette Stadium for a prime time date with New England on Sunday night and barring a Super Bowl matchup in the near or not too distant future, this will be it for a pair of quarterbacks who have six Super Bowl victories and five Most Valuable Award trophies between them.

In their only previous meeting at Lambeau Field in November of 2014, Rodgers got the better of Brady in Green Bay's 26-21 victory.

Brady has a 5-1 and 3-2 advantage in Lombardi Trophies and MVP awards.   Rodgers is the NFL's career passer rating leader at 103.6, Brady is third at 97.6.  Since the league was founded, only two quarterbacks in history have had multiple seasons of at least 30 touchdown passes with less than 10 interceptions.  Rodgers and Brady both have 6.

Rodgers will turn 35 in a month. Brady hit 41 last August.  A combined 33 years in the league, they've split 299 victories.   

Remarkable players for a decade and two.   Based on the league's scheduling formula, the NFC North and AFC East rotation won't come around again until 2022 and I can't imagine Brady will still be putting on the uniform by then.

In other words, enjoy the final show QB fans.

As for the game itself, the Patriots want to keep things rolling.  They dropped back to back road games to Jacksonville and Detroit and have won five straight since, including 43-40 and 38-31 shootouts over Kansas City and Chicago.   Monday night, the coasted over Buffalo 25-6 to reach 6-2, firmly in control of a division they've owned since Brady and Bill Belichick first shook hands.

The Packers are now at a crossroads.   3-3-1 screams of good days, bad days and yes, an even day.

A spirited but losing effort in Los Angeles last Sunday h didn't give the team any false confidence but it offered a glimpse real confidence can be created with a similar effort and winning result Sunday night.

The dust has settled on the Tuesday deals of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Ty Montgomery.

Since it's 12 vs 12 at Gillette Stadium, here's a dozen quick hits that could make the difference.

One:  

Finish what you start.  The Packers still struggle to finish drives in the end zone instead of the red zone.   Two touchdowns instead of two Mason Crosby field goals in L.A. would have made Montgomery's fumble moot.  Even in the victory over the Pats at Lambeau four years ago, the offense dominated with over 400 yards but Crosby had to kick three in a five point win.

Two:

Safety in numbers, numbers at safety.  How will the re-shuffled secondary hold up?   Tramon Williams will take snaps in Ha Ha's spot but he won't be the only one.  If there are any communication breakdowns with the new combinations, Brady will exploit them.

Three:

Let Jones roll.   With only two, instead of three running backs to rotate, it's time the Packers cut Aaron Jones completely loose.  In his five games active, Jones has 6, 11, 7. 8 and 12 carries.  At 6.2 yards per carry, Jones has the highest average among all NFL backs.  Do the math....20 carries equals 124 yards.

Four:

Inside information.  The Packers have plenty of New England game planning experience to lean on.   Defensive run game coordinator Patrick Graham used to coach in Foxboro,  Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin was the boss in Miami for a couple of years and Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine put together some challenging and winning plans when he was in the division with the Jets and Bills.

Five:

Alexander island.    I know, Reavis island sounds better but a big reason why the Packers are comfortable moving Williams to safety is the play of the precocious rookie Jaire Alexander.   His five pass breakups last week against the Rams were the most by any DB in the league this year.   Stick him on Edelman.  Stick him on Hogan.  I like his chances to stick with either of them.

Six:

A White night.    Ask Brady who his favorite player on offense is, he'll say James White.  The former Wisconsin Badger followed up his huge Super Bowl with a terrific eight games.  He has 55 receptions to lead the team, one more than Rob Gronkowski and Julien Edelman combined.   He'll be a handful for the Pack.

Seven:

Spread the wealth.   When the Patriots tried to take away Jordy Nelson four years ago, rookie Davante Adams won his matchups to the tune of 6 catches and his first career 100 yard day with 121.  Now New England will likely try to limit Adams.  Time for Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equamineous St. Brown to beat the likes of Jonathan Jones or rookie Keion Crossen.

Eight:

Get the teams even.   The Special Teams were badly outplayed at the Coliseum, committing the only turnover, shanking a 25 yard punt, getting a Ram kick downed at the one which led to the safety, the margin of victory for LA I might add.   The Packers can't let a traditionally solid special teams team get that much of an upper hand.

Nine:

Make him dance.   Tom Brady is not Steve Young, much less Michael Vick, yet he's only been sacked 11 times.    He has thrown seven interceptions though.  The secret?   Get him dancing in, up, back and around the pocket enough to blur his sightlines.   It'll give the Packers defensive backs a fighting chance.

Ten:

Adjust to adjustments.   Mike Pettine says New England's offense may be the best in the league and making in-game adjustments to what they're being shown defensively.   The same for the other side of the ball.  Belichick is a master at eliminating a team's best offensive option and adjusting if another starts producing.

Eleven:

The unlikely hero.     Big regular season games, like playoff games, often produce an unlikely hero.  My Green Bay candidates are Reggie Gilbert and Bashaud Breeland.   Gilbert showed so much pass rushing flash in the pre-season but has just a sack and a half so far.   His speed might get home.   Breeland has been chomping at the bit since getting signed but he had to shake off minor hurts.  He could get snaps in the secondary and also get a peek as the new kick returner.

Twelve:

Which 12?   Who will have the better statistical game?   Completion percentage goes to Brady, attempts, completions and yards to Rodgers.  Mistakes will be a push and TD's?  I'll go with Brady.

Looking forward to another competitive game but the Packers will come home grumpy again.   A 4th loss won't be the ruination of 2018 but it leaves no more room for error.  A Green Bay win could be the springboard to a second half run.   I like the Patriots 27-24.